Trump leads Biden in critical battleground state in post-debate poll

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A new public opinion poll in the crucial Midwestern swing state of Wisconsin that was conducted entirely after the June 27 debate between President Biden and former President Trump indicates the Republican challenger with a five point advantage over the Democratic incumbent in the White House.

And the survey, released on Tuesday by AARP, indicates Biden’s support in Wisconsin, running behind Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who leads GOP challenger Eric Hovde in their crucial Senate race.

According to the poll, which was conducted by Republican pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Democratic pollsters Impact Research on behalf of AARP, Trump tops Biden 50%-45% among likely voters in Wisconsin.

When third party and independent presidential candidates are included, Trump leads Biden 44%-38%, with Democrat turned independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3%.


President Biden speaks at a campaign rally in Madison, Wisconsin, on July 5, 2024. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

The AARP survey indicates Trump ahead of Biden in a head-to-head matchup by seven points among voters 50 and older. Among voters under 50, the two candidates are within the margin of error, while Baldwin leads Hovde by 14 points among the same pool of voters.

The poll was conducted June 28-July 2, after the debate but before last Friday’s rally by the president in Madison, Wisconsin.


The new poll’s release comes a couple of days after a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey in Wisconsin suggested Biden held a lower-single digit edge over Trump.

Wisconsin, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, made up the so-called blue wall of states that helped carry the Democrats in presidential elections for three decades until Trump narrowly carried all three of the states in his 2016 presidential election victory.

Donald Trump Racine WI June 19 2024 scaled

Republican presumptive presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump walks to the podium at a campaign event Tuesday, June 18, 2024, in Racine, Wisconsin. (Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press)

But Biden won all three states by razor-thin margins in 2020, as he defeated Trump to win the White House.

The release of the poll comes less than a week before the start of the Republican National Convention, which will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.


The new survey is the latest with warning signs for Biden. A handful of national polls conducted entirely after the debate and released last week contained plenty of red flags for the president — including Trump widening his single-digit edge over Biden and deepening concerns of Americans about whether Biden was up to the task of running the country.

Biden trump debate

President Biden and former President Trump face off at a debate in Atlanta, Georgia on June 27, 2024. (Getty Images)

Following his extremely rough debate performance a week and a half ago in his first face-to-face showdown Trump, Biden has been attempting to prove that he still has the stamina and acuity to handle the toughest and most demanding job in the world. And he’s trying to prove that he has the fortitude to defeat Trump.

The debate was a major setback for Biden, who at 81 is the oldest president in the nation’s history. His halting delivery and stumbling answers at the showdown in Atlanta sparked widespread panic in the Democratic Party and a rising tide of public and private calls from within his own party for him to step aside as its 2024 standard-bearer.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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