Even with the Lions having yet to play their Week 17 Monday night game, the stage is already set for an incredible matchup between Detroit and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night in Week 18. Regardless of the outcome, it’s time to formally extend an invite to the “big kids table” for Minnesota, which more than proved its status as an elite-level NFL team over the course of the season and once again on Sunday afternoon in a 27-25 victory over the white-hot Packers.
Green Bay had lost just once since its Week 10 bye and entered the week favored over the Vikings, despite being the visitor. It was already probably a case of the wrong team being favored and the Vikings proved why, with yet another impressive performance from Sam Darnold, who went 33 of 43 for a career-high 377 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
Darnold was hoisted onto his teammates shoulders and drenched in a postgame celebration after closing out the game on a third-and-2 with a quick bootleg flip to Cam Akers that picked up a first down and let Darnold knee the game out.
There was a stretch of the season where Darnold waffled a bit with his performance, but at what point do we say pedigree (former third overall pick) and coaching (Kevin O’Connell’s gotten the most out of every quarterback he works with) plus performance (Darnold has completed 68 percent of his passes, thrown for 4,153 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 picks) make us fully trust Darnold? I think we should be there. He’s just a good quarterback now!
If you don’t think situation matters for a quarterback, just consider this picture was less than two years ago:
Darnold’s in a position with great weapons, great coaching and he’s elevated those around him while playing within KOC’s system. He nearly had another deep touchdown pass to Jordan Addison on Sunday.
The Vikings defense flummoxed the high-octane Packers offense for most of the day — a 15-point, fourth-quarter rally is the only thing that made the game close — with Minnesota leading 27-10 late in this one and looking like it was going to completely dominate the Packers.
If they beat the Lions in Detroit next week, the Vikings will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. You can nitpick their foibles all you want, but this is just a good football team. The NFC is wide open this year, thanks to various injuries to Detroit, the Eagles boxed out of the No. 1 seed and a lot of spicy wild-card teams.
Should the Vikings land the top seed — and, again, all they need to garner it is a win against Detroit — they’re just as capable of running the table as anyone else, particularly given their home-field advantage, their coaching advantage against most teams, their blitzing defense and the plethora of weapons, all of whom are capable of exploding at any given moment.
Let’s look at the NFC, which has just one remaining playoff spot to figure out, but is wide open from a seeding perspective:
No. 1 seed — Lions or Vikings. It’s easy. Whoever wins the game in Week 18 is the top seed in the NFC. The loser becomes the No. 5 seed. Sunday night’s matchup will be the first-ever regular-season matchup between 13+ win teams. There has never been a 14-win team to land a wild-card spot in NFL history. If the Lions win on Monday night against the 49ers, the loser of Minnesota-Detroit will be the first.
No. 2 seed — Eagles. With Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee at quarterback, Philly absolutely blasted the Cowboys on Sunday and clinched the No. 2 seed regardless of what happens in Week 18. It’ll be curious to see what the Eagles do with Jalen Hurts, who doesn’t need to play but will have had some significant time off ahead of the playoffs if he sits in the final week of the regular season.
No. 3 seed — Rams or Buccaneers. Los Angeles’ win on Saturday, as ugly as it was, really set the stage well for the Rams’ playoff situation. They’ve clinched the NFC West and made their way to 10 wins. If they beat the Seahawks, they’re the No. 3 seed. But they can also lose to Seattle — a team now eliminated from the playoffs despite its ugly 6-3 win over the Bears Thursday — and still get the No. 3 seed if the Buccaneers lose. Tampa Bay, which looked incredible on offense against the Panthers, needs the Rams to lose and also must win in order to land the No. 3 seed.
No. 4 seed — Rams or Buccaneers or Falcons. The aforementioned scenarios above apply here, obviously. If the Rams lose and the Bucs win, the Rams are the No. 4 seed. If the Rams win, the Buccaneers or the Falcons end up as the No. 4 seed. The Falcons play the Panthers at home, and, as a result of losing to the Commanders on Sunday night, need to win and need the Buccaneers to lose in order to win the division. The Bucs would probably like the third seed but won’t be worried about it much — they just want to handle the Saints at home and ensure they’re in the postseason.
No. 5 seed — Lions or Vikings. Pretty straightforward here! The loser of Sunday night’s game will be the No. 5 seed and first wild-card team due to their high win totals. Tough break for a great team!!!
No. 6 seed — Commanders or Packers. The sixth and seventh seeds are pretty easy too. The Commanders and Packers are iced out of their respective divisions but have clinched playoff spots. The Commanders have a leg up right now: If they win in Dallas in Week 18, they’re the sixth seed. They can also get the sixth seed if they lose and the Packers lose at home to the Bears. The Packers, obviously, need to win against Chicago and also have the Commanders lose in Dallas.
No. 7 seed — Commanders or Packers. See above.
Chiefs in great position; AFC playoff seeding possibilities
The most astonishing stat of the entire NFL season got more astonishing on Sunday with the Giants’ random 45-point outburst with Drew Lock under center. Not only did the Giants hurt their draft stock and eliminate the Colts from the playoffs, but they also managed to shrink the number of teams who have failed to score 30 points this season:
Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
New England Patriots (3-13)
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
INSANITY. The Chiefs, the two-time defending Super Bowl champion, haven’t scored 30 points once this season. They have Patrick Mahomes! They haven’t scored THIRTY POINTS ONCE. And they’ve still managed to win 15 games. It’s one of the biggest anomalies we’ve ever seen in football. And it still wouldn’t shock anyone if the Chiefs managed to pull off a third straight Super Bowl, primarily because we’ve seen them do this before. Last year, in fact, when the offense looked mostly average for the entirety of the season before K.C. flipped the switch and got hot on offense in the playoffs.
The Chiefs will have plenty of time to prepare: They’re going to sit key starters in Week 18, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported Sunday, which means they’ll have a historic 24-day rest period for most of these guys by virtue of securing the No. 1 seed with their 29-10 win over the Steelers on Saturday night.
Let’s run through the AFC seeding possibilities, which cleared up significantly after Week 17.
No. 1 seed — Chiefs. They locked it down Sunday and it was announced by Andy Reid in full Santa costume. The Chiefs’ biggest influence on the playoffs will be whether or not they can beat the Broncos with backups in Week 18. More on that in a second.
No. 2 seed — Bills. Josh Allen and the Bills smoked the Jets on Sunday to lock up the No. 2 seed. It *probably* means Allen is winning MVP, but that’s still up in the air given he’s likely to sit in Week 18, especially considering how early he was pulled for Mitchell Trubisky on Sunday and given he’s dealt with a broken left hand all season long.
No. 3 seed — Ravens or Steelers. Saturday’s action completely flipped the AFC North, with Baltimore surging into the pole position to win the division and secure the No. 3 seed. They simply need to beat the Browns at home on Saturday in Week 18 to lock in the No. 3 seed, but can also lose and still clinch the division if the Steelers also lose. The Steelers, of course, need to beat the Bengals at home in Week 18 (also on Saturday) and have the Ravens lose to the Browns to get the No. 3 seed. By virtue of the scheduling — the Ravens play at 4:30 p.m. ET and the Steelers/Bengals go at 8 p.m. ET — the Steelers could conceivably know their fate heading into the evening matchup, although they’ll still be battling for a lower seed.
No. 4 seed — Texans. The winner of the AFC’s worst division, Houston saw things break its way on Sunday enough for it to secure the division.
No. 5 seed — Ravens or Steelers or Chargers. The Steelers have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers, so if all three of these teams win in Week 18, the Steelers would get the No. 5 seed and the Chargers would be the No. 6 seed. If all three teams lose, the Steelers would still get the No. 5 seed. And if the Steelers lose and the Chargers win, L.A. would leapfrog the Steelers for the No. 5 seed. The Ravens hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers as well, so if they lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Ravens can’t dip lower than the fifth spot.
No. 6 seed — Steelers or Chargers. See: above, basically. The Ravens cannot end up here, so if they lose and the Steelers win, the Chargers would be locked into the sixth seed going into their game against the Raiders on Sunday. If the Ravens win and the Steelers win on Saturday, the Chargers would also be locked into the sixth seed. If the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, the Chargers can win in Las Vegas on Sunday to push the Steelers down to the sixth seed.
No. 7 seed — Bengals or Broncos or Dolphins. Now THIS is where things get really spicy and could get wild. The Bengals are somehow still alive for this spot, but have to win and need help. The Bengals must beat the Browns on Saturday and then need the Chiefs, likely with their backups, to beat the Broncos AND the Jets, who might not be motivated, to beat the Dolphins at home. Denver is already an 8.5-point favorite over K.C. … it’s essentially a +342 parlay for the Bengals at this point, although weirder things have happened. The Broncos are in a “win-and-in” situation. Beat the Chiefs as massive home faves against backups and they’re the No. 7 seed. Denver could lose and still get in with a loss if both the Bengals and Dolphins lose. The Dolphins need help as well: They have to beat the Jets on the road AND have the Broncos lose in order to nab the seventh seed.
Which leads us to … the MVP discussion
I think Allen is still the MVP. He has been the best player in football over the entire course of the season and Buffalo has arguably been the best team over the entirety of the season as well. He has done it despite losing his top weapon in Stefon Diggs this offseason and putting the team on his shoulders.
But I also understand anyone pounding the table for Lamar Jackson again this year. He has voter fatigue working against him and still needs to win Sunday in order to clinch the AFC North. If the Ravens lose to the Browns, Lamar is out of contention, in my opinion, based on how the voters operate. Jackson has 19 touchdowns plus two more rushing and just two picks in his past seven games as the Ravens have come on like gangbusters in the division and the conference.
Then there’s Joe Burrow. He’s still a super long shot to win the award, as he should be. But, man, if the Bengals were in the playoffs I’m not so sure he wouldn’t be the favorite for the award. He has been unbelievable over the past couple of months and pretty darn good for the entire season. In the Bengals’ four-game winning streak to get back in the postseason race, Burrow has 12 touchdowns and two picks and has been in total command of the Cincy offense, not to mention absolutely clutch in every possible spot the Bengals needed him.
If he snakes the award, it means the Bengals got into the playoffs, and you can bet NO ONE will want to see them. Which may be exactly why the Chiefs do not try hard at all on Sunday against Denver.
