Any time Duke and North Carolina go head-to-head, it’s must-see. On Friday, their women’s basketball programs will meet with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line when the No. 2 seeded Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 3 seeded North Carolina Tar Heels in the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament on Friday Birmingham 2 Region. North Carolina (29-7) and Duke (28-7) split their two matchups this season with the home team winning each time. North Carolina holds a slight edge in the all-time series (56-54) and the Tar Heels are 4-3 against the Blue Devils over the last three seasons.
Tipoff is 2:30 p.m. ET at Legacy Arena in Birmingham. The latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds list the Blue Devils as 5.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 124.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. Duke picks, be sure to see the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament picks from SportsLine experts Aaron Barzilai and Calvin Wetzel.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Wetzel incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. They are 543-383 overall (+122.89 units) during the 2023-24 women’s college basketball campaign and posted a 125-71-1 record (+44.33 units) so far in 24-25.
Now, here are their three best bets for North Carolina vs. Duke on Friday:
Duke -5.5
The Blue Devils covered the spread in all three of their victories en route to capturing the ACC Tournament title, which they capped off with a 76-62 victory over North Carolina State. They covered again in an 86-25 win over Lehigh in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament before defeating Oregon 59-53 in the second round, but failing to cover the margin. Sophomore guard Oluchi Okananwa has emerged late in the season as Duke’s leading scorer in each ACC Tournament game and in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to add another strong offensive piece behind Freshman guard Toby Fournier (13.4 ppg) and junior guard Ashlon Jackson (12.5 ppg). Okananwa has raised her average to 10.2 ppg, including 14 ppg over her last five contests. Her ascension could be too much firepower for North Carolina.
Under 124.5
North Carolina and Duke went Under this total in each of their regular-season contests, averaging 110 ppg in those matchups. These two programs have studied each other throughout the year for regular-season matchups that are always circled on the calendars, so they may know more about one another than any schools in the country do. “Given the intensity of the rivalry spot combined with the slow and defensive nature of both teams – each regular season meeting went under this line, including a 53-46 overtime game that remains the only sub-100 overtime game in the country this season – the under is a look here as well,” Wetzel said.
North Carolina First Team to Score
If you are looking for a prop to play, and to find your wager’s results within seconds, this is the one Wetzel loves. “The Tar Heels have won 74% of their jump balls against major conference competition this year, while Duke has won only 23%,” Wetzel said. “North Carolina, as underdogs in the game, will likely open as underdogs in this market too, but I would play it out to -125.”
Want more Women’s NCAA Tournament picks?
You’ve seen the Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Duke vs. North Carolina in the Sweet 16 of the Women’s NCAA Tournament. Now, get picks for every game from the experts who are up 44 units on their women’s college basketball picks this season.