Before we start things off here, I’d like everyone to know that if all my betting picks are wrong this week, I blame the time change.
The first week after turning the clock back is always a nightmare for me, but especially this year, and that’s mostly because I have a 4-month-old baby, and babies don’t understand how time changes works. I tried to explain it to him, but I don’t think he heard a word I said because he was too busy trying to eat his hand.
Of course, the irony there is that I’ll probably try to eat my hand on Sunday morning just so I have something to do to pass the time while watching the Giants and Panthers game that’s being played in Germany. On paper, that is easily the worst game of Week 10 and possibly the worst game that’s ever been on any NFL schedule ever. I mean, Giants fans barely want to watch the Giants play, Panthers fans barely want to watch the Panthers play and no one wants to watch them play each other. Moving that game 4,000 miles away was definitely the right move. Kudos to the NFL.
All right, the baby just opened one of the betting apps on my phone and I think he’s trying to bet the Panthers, so let’s hurry up and get to the picks so I can go stop him. Can’t have the baby betting on Carolina.
NFL Week 10 picks
Cincinnati (4-5) at Baltimore (6-3)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Point spread pick: Bengals (+6.5 at FanDuel)
We’ve got a huge showdown on Thursday night with Joe Burrow returning to the stadium where his wrist snapped last season.
When I look at this game, all I can think about is the fact that Bengals BLEW a 10-point lead in the final six minutes against the Ravens back in Week 5 when Baltimore beat Cincinnati, 41-38. If the Bengals don’t blow that lead, then both teams would currently be sitting at 5-4 and no one would have any idea who to take in this game. Instead, the Ravens won and they’re now favored by 6.5 points.
Joe Burrow threw an interception with roughly three minutes left to play in the first meeting against the Ravens and I feel like he’s still bitter about it because he didn’t even bother celebrating after the Bengals beat the Raiders on Sunday. The man threw five touchdown passes against Las Vegas and he looked despondent after the win and I’m guessing that’s because all he can think about is beating the Ravens.
Not not only did Burrow throw five TD passes against the Raiders, but he also threw five against Baltimore, which means he has more five-TD games this year (2) than every other QB in the NFL combined (1). The NFL’s other five-TD game actually came from Lamar Jackson, which makes me think we might be getting another shootout.
The Ravens have won six of their past seven games and a big reason that’s happened is because Jackson is playing some of the best football of his career. He’s coming off a game against the Broncos where he finished with a perfect passer rating, which makes him the FIRST QB in NFL history to record a perfect rating in four different games. Patrick Mahomes? Peyton Manning? Tom Brady? They didn’t do it. Lamar Jackson did. He’s also thrown for at least 275 yards in five straight games, which is a franchise record for the Ravens.
The Ravens passing game has opened up because everyone is so focused on stopping Derrick Henry. The only thing working in the Bengals favor is that they’ve already played the Ravens this year, so they know exactly what they’re up against. In their first meeting, Henry had just 30 yards through the first three quarters while Jackson had thrown for just 184.
Basically, the Bengals were holding Baltimore’s offense in check until the wheels fell off the wagon in the fourth quarter. The wagon then exploded with the Bengals still inside it and Cincinnati ended up losing.
The last time around, I picked the Bengals and not much has changed about how I feel about the matchup that we’re going to see. The Ravens still can’t stop the pass (They’re given up 280.5 yards per game, which ranks dead last in the NFL) and the Bengals defense still struggles to stop any team that’s even remotely talented on the offensive side of the ball (They’ve played four teams this year that are currently above .500 and those four teams averaged 35.5 points per game against the Bengals).
I see another shootout coming, but this time around, the Bengals aren’t going to blow their fourth-quarter lead. Also, I should note that the Bengals are now 1-0 since Macaulay Culkin dressed up as Joe Burrow for Halloween.
That’s not going to impact my pick this week, but I’m going to have to take into account the Culkin effect if the Bengals beat the Ravens on Thursday.
The pick: Bengals 34-31 over Ravens
NOTE: I’m 6-1 picking my last seven Thursday games, and although you don’t have to call me “Mr. Thursday Night” just yet, you can if you want to.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model reveals all its picks for Week 10, and has the Ravens prevailing in a ‘TNF’ shootout against the Bengals. Check out SportsLine for the rest of the predictions, including a shocking upset.
Pittsburgh (6-2) at Washington (7-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Steelers (+2.5 at BetMGM)
This is easily the biggest thing going on in Washington this week. Sure, there’s a presidential election happening on Nov. 5, but those happen all the time. I mean, this is the seventh one we’ve had since 2000. You know what doesn’t happen all the time? The Commanders starting the season with a 7-2 record.
As a matter of fact, the last time it happened came when Bob Dole was running for president, and if you don’t feel like Googling when that was, I’ll just tell you: It was 1996.
That’s right, the Commanders are off to their best start in nearly 30 years and all it took was Jayden Daniels falling into their lap with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Although Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in football this year, I don’t have high expectations for him this week and that’s because he’ll be going up against a Mike Tomlin defense.
If you’ve ever watched a hot dog eating contest involving Joey Chestnut, you’ll notice that they’re never close and that he always wins. That’s basically what happens whenever Tomlin faces a rookie quarterback. Mike Tomlin is Joey Chestnut and the rookie quarterbacks are the hot dogs. Since taking over the Steelers head-coaching job in 2007, Tomlin has had 31 games where he faced a rookie quarterback, and he’s gone 25-6 in those games.
When you have a rookie quarterback, one thing that helps your offense is when you can get your running game going, because that takes some pressure off the QB. The Commanders have done that well so far: They rank third in the NFL with 163.9 rushing yards per game and they’re 6-0 on the season when they rush for at least 140 yards.
The problem for the Commanders this week is that no one has been able to run on the Steelers. There are only four teams in the NFL that are surrendering less than 100 yards per game on the ground and the Steelers are one of them. This feels like a game where T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense could take over, which is exactly what Tomlin is probably hoping to see.
Also, I should probably point out that the Steelers offense looks totally rejuvenated with Russell Wilson running the show. In his two starts, they’ve gone over 400 yards each time, which is notable, because that’s not something we usually see from the Steelers. Before Wilson came along, the Steelers hadn’t gone over 400 yards in back-to-back games since 2018.
The Steelers are coming off a bye, although I’m not sure Wilson actually took any time off, because he apparently doesn’t believe in bye weeks. He spent his “off” week THROWING PASSES on the football field that he had built in his backyard.
My first rule of making NFL picks is never pick against Mike Tomlin when he’s facing a rookie QB and I will not be breaking that rule this week. My second rule is never pick against a guy who has a football field in his backyard.
The pick: Steelers 23-20 over Commanders
Philadelphia (6-2) at Dallas (3-5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Eagles (-6.5 at DraftKings)
Check out the latest DraftKings promo to get in the game.
When Jerry Jones told everyone during the offseason that the Cowboys were going to be “all in” this season, I’m starting to think that he actually meant that they were going to be all in on getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft, because at this point, that’s the only thing that makes sense.
The Cowboys offseason was bizarre, even by the Cowboys standards. For one, they could have made a play to sign Derrick Henry, but instead, they decided to use their free agency money on Ezekiel Elliott, who I’m not even sure wants to be playing for the team any more.
Elliott has missed THREE team meetings. I’m guessing that Henry has never missed a meeting in his life and if he has, it was probably to save a baby from a burning building. As we head into Week 10, Henry has nearly 400 rushing yards more than EVERY PLAYER on the Cowboys’ roster combined (1,052-656).
The Henry move comes one year after Dallas made the decision not to bring back Kellen Moore, which I’m only mentioning now because Moore is with the Eagles. Moore was the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator for four seasons and they were a top-10 offense for three of those four seasons, but apparently, that wasn’t good enough for the Cowboys. Moore ended up landing with the Eagles in 2023 and I’ll let you guess which team now has the statistically better offense. If you guessed the Cowboys, that was a dumb guess and you’re wrong.
The Eagles are averaging 377.1 yards per game this year, which is well ahead of the Cowboys, who are averaging 336.1 yards. One reason Mike McCarthy decided to move on from Moore is because he wasn’t the running the ball enough, which is a statement that is now dripping in so much irony that we all might drown in it and die.
If your plan is to run the ball more, you know who’s nice to have on your team? DERRICK FREAKING HENRY.
The Cowboys are a dumpster fire this season: Their two best offensive players are both banged up (Dak Prescott won’t be playing and CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury) and if they lose this game, it will likely be the final nail in the coffin for their season. I have to think that there’s nothing the Eagles would love more than to hammer in the final nail on the Cowboys’ season.
The pick: Eagles 38-17 over Cowboys
N.Y. Jets (3-6) at Arizona (5-4)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Jets (+1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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If you would have asked me two weeks ago who was going to win this game, I would have said the Cardinals by 30, but that was before I found out that Aaron Rodgers is drinking some sort of new secret concoction: cayenne pepper and water.
Before Rodgers started drinking the stuff, the Jets couldn’t beat anyone. But now, they look unbeatable. In what would be the most Jets thing ever, it’s starting to look like there’s a chance that their season could be saved by cayenne pepper and water. If they beat Arizona, I’m going to start drinking cayenne pepper and water before every meal. If they win again in Week 11, I may start bathing in the stuff.
Speaking of baths, Rodgers might need to drink an entire bath tub full of his pepper water if he’s going to lead the Jets to an upset over the Cardinals. At 5-4, Arizona has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year, but their defense hasn’t been great. The Cardinals have been bulldozed on the ground and if the Jets want to win, that’s likely what they’ll have to do on Sunday. The Cards are 3-0 on the season when they hold their opponent under 100 rushing yards, but they’re 2-4 when their opponent tops 100 yards and BOTH of those wins came by exactly one point (The Cardinals also trailed by double digits in the second half of both of those games).
If the Jets team that beat the Texans in Week 9 shows up for this game, then New York should be in a good spot. They showed off a well-rounded offense and that’s exactly what you need to beat the Cardinals. Also, the Jets played on a Thursday in Week 9, which means they’ll have had 10 days of rest before this game, which means Aaron Rodgers will have had a few extra days to chug his special pepper water, and I can’t pick against a guy who chugs pepper water.
The pick: Jets 27-24 over Cardinals
Detroit (7-1) at Houston (6-3)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick: Lions (-3 at BetMGM)
Check out the latest BetMGM promo to get in the game.
First, let me start things off here by thanking the Lions. As someone who picked them to go the Super Bowl this year, I’ve never felt smarter than I do now. Last year, I picked the Cowboys to get to the Super Bowl out of the NFC and I still cry myself to sleep at least twice a week over that pick.
Through nine weeks, the Lions clearly look like the best team in the NFC and a big part of that is because Jared Goff is on one of the most insane runs that any quarterback has ever gone on in NFL history.
Over Detroit’s past six games, the Lions have gone 6-0 and that’s mainly because Goff has done this: He’s completed 82.8% of his passes, he’s thrown 13 touchdown passes compared to just one interception and he has a passer rating 140.1 passer. His passer rating and completion percentage are both an NFL record for a six-game span. Goff is officially doing things that Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning never did.
And remember, he’s doing this with the Lions. Winning six straight games is almost unheard of in Detroit. Before this year, the Lions hadn’t won six games in a row in the same season since 1995.
I thought that playing outdoors might slow him down in Week 9, but instead, Goff was even better, and now, he gets to go back indoors to face the Texans.
Goff will actually be getting a stiff test this week and that’s because the Texans have one of the pass defenses in the NFL. Houston is surrendering just 167.4 yards per game through the air, which is the third-best number in the league. Of course, my guess is that the Lions are well aware of how good the Texans are at stopping the pass, so I fully expect them to only run the ball this week. As good as Goff has been this year, the Lions are arguably better on the ground. With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs running the show, the Lions have averaged 152.6 rushing yards per game, which makes them one of just six teams in the NFL that’s averaged more than 150 yards per game this year.
I think the Lions are going to plow through the Texans defense. Nico Collins is eligible to come off injured reserve this week and if that happens, I could see Houston keeping this close, but if not, then I think the Lions win by double digits.
Actually, now that they’ve traded for Za’Darius Smith, I think they win by double digits even if Collins does play.
The pick: Lions 41-24 over Texans
NFL Week 10 picks: All the rest
Giants 24-17 over Panthers
Bears 20-17 over Patriots
Bills 30-20 over Colts
Chiefs 27-20 over Broncos
Falcons 31-23 over Saints
49ers 34-24 over Buccaneers
Vikings 23-16 over Jaguars
Chargers 27-17 over Titans
Rams 30-23 over Dolphins
BYES: Browns, Raiders, Packers, Seahawks
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the 2-6 Jets would beat the 6-2 Texans, and guess what happened? The 2-6 Jets beat the 6-2 Texans. I would love to take all the credit for getting this pick right, but I have to give all the credit to the pepper water. As soon as I found out that Rodgers was drinking that stuff, I knew the Jets were going to win. No one who drinks pepper water ever loses at anything. Maybe the Cowboys should start drinking pepper water.
Worst pick: After watching one good game from Jameis Winston in Week 8, I immediately jumped on his bandwagon for Week 9 and that thing went off a cliff. Winston has been in the NFL since 2015 and he does the same thing every year: He wows you in one start, but then immediately throws 12 interceptions in his next start. Somehow, I forgot the second part of the Jamies Winston experience and I paid dearly for that in Week 9 when I picked the Browns to beat the Chargers, and let me just tell you, the Browns definitely didn’t win. Instead, Jameis went full Jameis and threw three interceptions with all of them coming in the second half. If I’ve learned one thing in Winston’s career, it’s that he’s completely unpredictable and I will now be flipping a coin for all of his starts going forward.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (7-1), Texans (7-2), Jaguars (7-2), Raiders (7-2), Chiefs (6-2)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Steelers (3-5)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 9: 13-2
SU overall: 82-56
Against the spread in Week 9: 9-6
ATS overall: 68-67-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably out buying $700 worth of cayenne pepper so that he can make his own pepper water at home.
