Nothing moves NFL lines like quarterback NFL injury news and there are two games on the Week 11 NFL schedule that have already seen significant movement thanks to news on starting quarterbacks. The Browns opened as four-point favorites over the Steelers in the NFL odds, but news that Deshaun Watson will be out with a shoulder injury has shifted the line to Cleveland -1. Meanwhile, the Lions opened as 9.5-point favorites over the Bears. That line was briefly in double-digits, but news that Justin Fields would return from a thumb injury has brought that line back down to Detroit -8.
Elsewhere in the Week 11 NFL spreads from the SportsLine Consensus, the Dolphins (-14) are the week’s biggest favorites over the Raiders, while the 49ers (-13) are also favored by double-digits over the Buccaneers. Which Week 11 NFL Vegas lines should you target as you place your NFL bets? All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-125 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 28-17 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 11 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 11 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 11 NFL picks is that the Panthers (+10.5) cover at home against the Cowboys. It’s a lopsided matchup on paper with Dallas at 6-3 and Carolina at 1-8. However, the Cowboys have become heavily reliant on their passing game to move the ball and the Panthers have the sixth-best pass defense in the NFL.
Carolina has only allowed 133.7 passing yards over their last three games and is 2-1 against the spread during that span. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 1-3 against the spread on the road and lost outright the last time they were double-digit favorites away from home (Week 3 in Arizona). Those are big reasons why the model has the Panthers covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 11 NFL predictions: The Steelers (+2) stay within the spread on the road when they take on the Browns. The Browns remain in the NFL playoff picture, but they’ll have to go forward without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Former Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs is the next man up at QB for Cleveland.
That downgrade under center has led to the line falling from -4 to -2 for Cleveland. SportsLine’s model has factored in that Pittsburgh is undefeated in one-score games this season and has thrived with a 6-3 spread record, including a 4-2 mark as the underdog. The model projects that this will be a low-scoring game and Pittsburgh running back duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combine for almost 100 yards. That helps keep this game competitive as Pittsburgh stays within the number in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 11 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule and also just revealed three coveted A-rated picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which A-rated picks can you place right now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 11 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Get full NFL picks at SportsLine
Sunday, Nov. 19
Cowboys at Panthers (+10.5, 42.5)
Steelers at Browns (-2, 33)
Bears at Lions (-8, 48)
Chargers at Packers (+3, 44)
Cardinals at Texans (-5.5, 48)
Titans at Jaguars (-6.5, 39.5)
Raiders at Dolphins (-14, 45.5)
Giants at Commanders (-9, 38)
Buccaneers at 49ers (-13, 41.5)
Jets at Bills (-7.5, 39.5)
Seahawks at Rams (-2, 46.5)
Vikings at Broncos (-3, 41.5)
Monday, Nov. 20
Eagles at Chiefs (-2.5, 45.5)