GM Q3: resilient results and a forecast upgrade


Q3 group revenue rose by 10.5% to a record US$48.76bn as consolidated wholesales rose by 5.3%. By Jonathan Storey

Following earnings beats in Q1 and Q2 2024, GM’s Q3 results not only outperformed consensus forecasts again, but were again accompanied by an upward adjustment of its full-year forecast. The market’s response was to mark the shares up by 8% on results day to a two-and-a-half-year peak as GM’s performance was particularly well received against the background increasing industry gloom and profit warnings at several rivals.

GM % change, Q3 2024 -v- yr ago

Q3 group revenue rose by 10.5% to a record US$48.76bn as consolidated wholesales rose by 5.3% to 1,033,000 units (please note the table below shows an 8.8% fall in retail sales, including the contribution by non-consolidated JVs in China).

Reported group operating profit was 21% higher at US$3.65bn. The reported figure included net non-recurring charges of US$417m, the major ones being US$190m for restructuring in North America and US$150m for restructuring of the Buick dealer network. In Q3 2024 net non-recurring charges amounted to US$123m.

GM operating margin (%)

gm q3 2024 chart 2

On a recurring basis the company reported Q3 Ebit of US$4.11bn, up 15.5%. The net increase of US$551m reflected the following:

  • US$1.0bn—price;
  • US$0.9bn—volume increase in GMNA, partly offset by a small drop in GMI;
  • US$(0.2)bn—net cost increases;
  • US$(0.6)bn—adverse mix;
  • US$(0.5)bn—other.

Sticking with the recurring figures, the company reported a 14.3% rise in GMNA’s Ebit to US$4.0bn but the division’s Ebit margin dipped to 9.7% from 9.8% in Q3 2023.

GMI’s recurring Ebit fell to just above breakeven from US$0.4bn, due to a negative contribution by the non-consolidated Chinese joint ventures. If the Chinese operations are excluded, GMI’s recurring Ebit margin improved to 5.1% from 3.8%.

GM Financial’s contribution to recurring earnings before tax fell by 7.3% to US$687m and the loss at Cruise improved to US$(383)m from US$(732)m due to the operation’s reduced activity.

GM Unit 9Mo-24 Q3-24 H1-24 Q2-24 Q1-24
Group   Data % Data % Data % Data % Data %
Revenue $ mil 139,740 8.4 48,757 10.5 90,983 7.4 47,969 7.2 43,014 7.6
Op. profit $ mil 11,262 34.4 3,651 21.2 7,611 41.8 3,873 38.9 3,738 45.0
Pre-tax profit $ mil 11,075 19.5 3,717 7.3 7,358 26.8 3,643 20.3 3,715 33.9
Net profit $ mil 8,838 12.6 3,008 0.5 5,830 20.1 2,877 14.8 2,953 25.9
Employees 000’s 164 0.0 164 0.0 165 0.0 165 0.0 163 (1.8)
Unit sales 000’s 4,257 (7.2) 1,477 (8.8) 2,780 (6.3) 1,432 (9.5) 1,348 (2.6)
GMNA 000’s 2,326 0.8 790 (0.8) 1,536 1.6 827 2.7 709 0.3
GME 000’s 2 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 0
GMSA 000’s 305.0 (8.4) 110 (8.3) 195 (8.5) 111 2.8 84 (20.0)
GMIO 000’s 1,624 (16.5) 576 (18.1) 1,048 (15.6) 493 (26.3) 555 (3.0)
Per unit
Revenue $ 32,826 16.8 33,011 21.2 32,728 14.6 33,498 18.5 31,909 10.4
Op. profit $ 2,646 44.8 2,472 32.9 2,738 51.4 2,705 53.5 2,773 48.9
Pre-tax profit $ 2,602 28.8 2,517 17.7 2,647 35.3 2,544 33.0 2,756 37.4
Net profit $ 2,076 21.4 2,037 10.2 2,097 28.2 2,009 26.9 2,191 29.2
Per employee
Revenue $ 852,073 8.4 297,299 10.5 551,412 7.4 290,721 7.2 263,890 9.6
Op. profit $ 68,671 34.4 22,262 21.2 46,127 41.8 23,473 38.9 22,933 47.7
Pre-tax profit $ 67,530 19.5 22,665 7.3 44,594 26.8 22,079 20.3 22,791 36.3
Net profit $ 53,890 12.6 18,341 0.5 35,333 20.1 17,436 14.8 18,117 28.2
Sales units 26.0 (7.2) 9.0 (8.8) 16.8 (6.3) 8.7 (9.5) 8.3 (0.8)
Return on revenue
Op. profit % 8.1 1.6 7.5 0.7 8.4 2.0 8.1 1.8 8.7 2.2
Pre-tax profit % 7.9 0.7 7.6 (0.2) 8.1 1.2 7.6 0.8 8.6 1.7
Net profit % 6.3 0.2 6.2 (0.6) 6.4 0.7 6.0 0.4 6.9 1.0
Revenue by div.          
GMNA $ mil 117,981 11.1 41,157 14.0 76,824 9.6 40,725 9.4 36,099 9.8
GMI $ mil 9,897 (17.6) 3,517 (18.8) 6,380 (16.9) 3,298 (16.6) 3,082 (17.3)
Auto Intra-Co $ mil 131 62 69 37 32
Auto total $ mil 128,009 8.1 44,736 10.5 83,273 6.9 44,060 6.8 39,213 7.0
Financial svcs $ mil 11,760 12.2 4,031 10.7 7,729 13.0 3,918 12.0 3,811 14.0
Other $ mil (29) (10) (19) (9) (10)

Outlook

GM began the year forecasting recurring Ebit of US$12-14bn for 2024. At the time of announcing its results for:

  • Q1, it raised this to US$12.5-14.5bn;
  • Q2, it raised the range again to US$13-15bn;
  • Q3, it narrowed the range further to $US14-15bn.

Looking ahead to 2025, in CEO Mary Barra’s letter to shareholders, she said recurring Ebit is expected to be in a similar range to the forecast 2024 result. The letter mentioned four drivers: progress on EV profitability, along with rising sales and market share growth; a wide range of redesigned SUVs that are more profitable than the outgoing models; overall cost discipline and focus on capital efficiency; and improved performance in China.

 



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