Two NFC contenders looking to clinch their respective divisions face off on Sunday night, as the Washington Commanders host the Atlanta Falcons. Jayden Daniels’ historic outing vs. the Philadelphia Eagles led Washington to a win last Sunday, while Michael Penix Jr. won his first NFL start vs. the lowly New York Giants.
The Falcons outscored the Giants by 27 points, but Penix didn’t account for a single touchdown. His defense scored twice off of Drew Lock interceptions, while Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Facing this Commanders squad on the road in prime time is going to be a different kind of test for last year’s FBS passing yards leader, but it is really our first opportunity to see how different this Falcons offense can be with a new signal-caller.
Let’s break down this prime-time NFC showdown, but first, here’s how to watch the game:
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
Commanders vs. Falcons where to watch
Date: Sunday, Dec. 29 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Commanders -4 O/U 46.5
Clinching Scenarios
Washington clinches playoff berth with:
- Commanders win or tie
- Buccaneers loss or tie
Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:
- Falcons win and Buccaneers loss
When the Commanders have the ball
While the Eagles didn’t have Jalen Hurts for the majority of Week 16, what Daniels accomplished against what was statistically the No. 1 defense in football was incredible. He became just the second quarterback ever to throw for 250 yards, five touchdowns and rush for 75 yards. Again, this is a player who has played in just 15 NFL games.
It was the passing game that carried Washington vs. Philly last week. Olamide Zaccheaus caught five passes for a team-high 70 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner, while Terry McLaurin caught five passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. McLaurin is someone who is capable of taking advantage of an Atlanta secondary that allowed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to combine for 265 receiving yards and five touchdowns earlier this month. McLaurin has already tied a franchise record with 12 receiving touchdowns this season, and has already secured his fifth straight 1,000-yard receiving campaign. That also tied a franchise record.
When the Falcons have the ball
Penix is looking to become the first Falcons quarterback to ever start his career 2-0. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards and one interception in his first start, but the interception was really a Kyle Pitts catch that the tight end handed over to the wrong team in the red zone. All in all, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris labeled Penix’s first start, “almost flawless football.”
Penix peppered Drake London with targets. The former No. 8 overall pick caught five of eight balls thrown his direction for 59 yards. However, it was Darnell Mooney who was Atlanta’s leading receiver with 82 yards on five catches. In what was a surprise on offense, the dual-threat weapon of Robinson tied a season-low with just 9 yards receiving. He was still the main option on offense, rushing 22 times for 94 yards and two scores, and you can expect Penix to rely on him again come Sunday night. Robinson has recorded 1,616 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns this season.
One player Penix and Robinson will have to look out for on Sunday is Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu. He’s been one of the most impressive defensive players this season, having recorded 89 combined tackles, eight sacks and an interception. Luvu could potentially become the first player to record 100 tackles and 10 sacks in a single season since the legendary James Harrison did so in 2010.
Prediction
How the Falcons defense contains Daniels is going to be key for an upset victory. While they held the Las Vegas Raiders and Giants to single digits over the last two games, Atlanta’s defense recently gave up 42 points to the Minnesota Vikings and 38 points to the Denver Broncos.
I’m excited to see these two rookie quarterbacks face off under the lights, but will be siding with the better team at home. Washington is 9-5-1 ATS this season, while Atlanta is 6-9 ATS. More importantly, the Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
Projected score: Commanders 28-22
