As the world watches the U.S. election unfold, many, especially people in Latin America, believe that Trump is the only option to prevent the decline of American economic power and influence.
Joseph Humire, an expert on Latin America and executive director of the think tank Center for a Secure Society, told Fox News Digital that many Latin Americans hope for a Trump victory on Nov. 5.
Humire said the Biden administration’s policy toward Latin America has resulted in it being “the worst that I’ve seen.”
“The last four years the region has gone into a very difficult direction,” he said. “Food inflation is really high. Organized crime and violence are really high. And, you know, little by little, they’re losing their democratic practices. There’s a huge democratic backsliding happening in the region.”
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President Trump throws a paper towel roll as he visits the Cavalry Chapel in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, on Oct. 3, 2017. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
According to Humire, Latin Americans believe that if elected Vice President Kamala Harris would continue the policies of the Biden administration and thus continue the economic decline and stagnation in the region.
On the other hand, Humire said the Latin American populace associates Trump’s presidency with a time when they experienced greater prosperity and that they see him as a sign of hope for better times when the U.S. had greater investment in the region and the economy was not so bleak. These people believe that Trump’s plan to lessen U.S. dependency on China would mean greater U.S. investment in Latin America.
“Most of the countries in Latin America are very eager to have investment from the United States,” he explained. “If Kamala Harris wins, then you may have a lot of agnostic attitudes, but you’ll have people say, ‘The United States is pretty much done with.’ On the flip side, if President Trump wins, I think you’ll see a huge reaction in Latin America. I think you’ll see a lot of enthusiasm, not even just from the government leaders, from the people.”
He also said that many politicos are closely watching the U.S. election, hoping it will bolster the ambitions of existing conservative, populist movements in South America. As U.S. influence in Latin America has waned, that vacuum has been filled by Russia, China and Iran, which has had a degrading effect on democracy in the region, Humire said.
Argentine President Javier Milei serves as an example of a recently arisen populist leader who has said he was inspired by Trump’s success in the U.S. Humire believes that a Trump victory on Election Night could lead to a slate of additional conservative leaders rising across Latin America, especially in countries close to Argentina such as Chile and Colombia.
Argentine President Javier Milei addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York on Sept. 24, 2024. (Reuters/Mike Segar)
As for the cartels, Humire said a Harris victory would essentially mean business as usual.
“If Kamala wins,” he said, “they know they’ll look at that as an extension of President Biden, and they know how to work that. They’ve been pretty successful over the last four years, turning a lot of the policy failures of the Biden administration into profits and success for the transnational criminal organizations. And so, they’ll be more of the same.”
Meanwhile, though some believe Trump’s strongman rhetoric projects the type of strength that is needed today, the consensus in Europe and the United Kingdom is that Harris should be the next U.S. president, according to Alan Mendoza, a British political analyst and founder of the Henry Jackson Society.
Mendoza told Fox News Digital that “if Europe and the U.K. were voting, Kamala Harris would win by a landslide.”
“Donald Trump does not obviously play to the European audience. He’s not trying to win over European hearts and minds,” he said.
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Vice President Kamala Harris (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images/File)
Mendoza said many Europeans are fearful that Trump will cut off all aid to Ukraine and pull the U.S. out of NATO at a time when the Russian threat is looming large over the continent.
“We understand the threats. Russia is on the doorstep,” he said.
On the other hand, he pointed out that Harris is inexperienced in foreign policy. He said some believe Trump would “restore” a sense of American strength and power that dissipated during the Biden administration.
Mendoza said a Trump or Harris administration’s impact on Europe will depend on who they appoint to crucial roles, such as secretary of state.
“A lot of this depends on which version of the administrations turn up,” he said. “It’s clearly going to be a gamble either way as far as Europe is concerned.”
A freed Ukrainian prisoner of war is shown with his relatives after a swap at an undisclosed location in this handout picture obtained on Oct. 19, 2024. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/via Reuters)
Beyond that, Mendoza said Trump’s persona does not play well with European sensibilities. Whether justified or not, Mendoza said that Europeans have an impression, reinforced by European media coverage, that Trump is anti-democratic, isolationist and ultraconservative on social issues such as abortion.
It was put very well by the historian Niall Ferguson fairly recently who said, if your main concern is the American empire, i.e., America’s power overseas, you’re going to back Trump, and if your main concern is the American republic, i.e., democracy at home, you might well vote for Kamala Harris,” he said.
Regardless of who they support, like most Americans, Mendoza said Europeans will be watching as the election results pour in.
“The U.S. election is being watched all around the world,” he said. “And, of course, Europe and the U.K. are no different in this. It is the big one. Even in this year of many elections, everyone understands the importance of the American election.”
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