We’re at the point in the season where numerous fan bases have already turned their attention to the draft. Almost all of those fans come to me with the exact same question: Is there a quarterback (or preferably multiple) worth drafting No. 1 overall? The answer to that question is complicated for a couple of reasons: 1) my opinion may not be that of the NFL’s, and 2) a lot can happen between now and April. Because of that, let me first walk you through how I see this class as a whole en route to answering that question.
When scouting a quarterback, one always has to balance physical gifts with on-field performance. Ideally, Andrew Luck is walking through the door and you get an elite blend of both, but “generational” prospects don’t come around every year by definition. How one weighs both tools and performance is an age-old debate. Prospects like Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, Josh Allen and Carson Wentz weren’t drafted where they were because of their box scores, while prospects like Bryce Young, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa were taken where they were almost entirely because of their statistical outputs (i.e. how they played the position already).
We can see when going through the history of QB1s for the past decade, however, that evaluators routinely trend towards on-field performance over pure physical prowess:
- 2024: 1(1) Caleb Williams, USC
- 2023: 1(1) Bryce Young, Alabama
- 2022: 1(20) Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
- 2021: 1(1) Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
- 2020: 1(1) Joe Burrow, Bengals
- 2019: 1(1) Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
- 2018: 1(1) Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
- 2017: 1(2) Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
- 2016: 1(1) Jared Goff, California
- 2015: 1(1) Jameis Winston, Florida State
If I had to bucket those 10 quarterbacks into how they fared on a tools/performance scale, it would look like this:
Good enough traits + good enough performance
- Kenny Pickett
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Jared Goff
High-end performance + OK traits
- Bryce Young
- Joe Burrow
- Baker Mayfield
High-end traits + High-end performance
- Caleb Williams
- Trevor Lawrence
- Kyler Murray
- Jameis Winston
Obviously, quarterback scouting is far more nuanced than the simplistic categories above, but I think it provides a starting point for analysis. As you can see, the only two non-No. 1 pick QB1s of the past decade fall into the good enough/good enough bucket. That’s telling. With that in mind, here’s how I’d grade out the top of this quarterback class in both categories.
|
Cam Ward (Miami) |
A |
A |
|
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) |
B- |
A |
|
Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) |
C- |
A |
|
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) |
C+ |
A- |
|
Drew Allar (Penn State) |
A |
B |
|
Carson Beck (Georgia) |
B+ |
B- |
|
Quinn Ewers (Texas) |
B |
B- |
|
Jalen Milroe (Alabama) |
A |
B- |
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While it’s still early in the season, one can see that there’s only four quarterbacks even close to having top-of-the-draft performance at the moment. While “at the moment” is a big caveat, most sure-fire No. 1 picks play at a high-level wire-to-wire in their final seasons. If a quarterback doesn’t, I think the tools/performance analysis is a great starting point. So, where does the top of this year’s class fall? At this point in time, it’s safe to say that the 2025 quarterback class is far more talented than the 2022 group that saw none taken in the top 10 and only Pickett drafted in the first round.
It’s also fair to say that it’s unlikely to be what we saw in 2024, 2023 and 2021, during which quarterbacks made up three of the first four picks in each of those drafts.
High-end traits + OK performance
Drew Allar, Penn State
With a 6-foot-5, 238-pound frame, an arm that can put 30-yarders on a line and some sudden feet in the pocket, Allar is first-team All-looks-the-part. What makes him even more intriguing is the big leaps we’ve seen from his first season as a starter in 2023 to this fall. Even though he still misses too many layups, Allar’s ball placement has seen a drastic improvement in Year 2.
While it’s an encouraging start, it’s still only 168 dropbacks. Penn State is a run-first team, and until USC, all it has basically done is ask Allar not to lose games. How he’ll fare with the offense on his back on a big stage remains to be seen, but we’ll certainly get to see it with the No. 3 ranked Nittany Lions. If he passes tests like against Ohio State and in the college football playoff, Allar could be a top-10 pick. If not, I’d advise him to come back for one more year.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Milroe is a high-end traits prospect for a distinctly different reason than Allar: the man can flat-out scoot. He’s easily the most dynamic rushing threat in the class with 11 rushing touchdowns already this season. With everyone looking for a run game that can take defenses out of two-high shells, Milroe can immediately provide that in the NFL if his wheels are properly utilized.
All that rushing ability won’t get you too far in the NFL, however, if you can’t keep defenses honest from the pocket. We’ve seen drastic improvement from Milroe in that regard over his two seasons as a starter, but he’s still very shaky as a true dropback passer. The Alabama offense is pretty much screens or deep passes to try to scheme around his deficiencies in the underneath and intermediate game. That’s simply not going to fly at the NFL level. With one more year of eligibility, Milroe still has a long way to go developmentally.
Good enough traits + (not yet) good enough performance
Quinn Ewers, Texas
After the first two games of the season, Ewers looked like he’d taken another leap forward in his development. The wheels have fallen off in a big way since. Ewers suffered an abdominal injury against UTSA, causing him to miss two games — his third straight season missing multiple games due to injury.
That medical red flag is already enough for teams to look elsewhere at the top of the draft, but his performance since returning from the injuries likely has scouts taking him out of the first-round conversation altogether. He’s put up only 406 yards on 82 dropbacks against Oklahoma and Georgia the past two weeks with three touchdowns and two picks. Those numbers don’t quite do justice to how lost Ewers has looked over that span.
He may very well be playing through excruciating pain, but if he’s not, there’s a very real chance he’s benched for Arch Manning before the Longhorns season is up, unless things turn around.
Carson Beck, Georgia
Beck was many people’s QB1 entering the season, but I’m not sure anyone still feels the same way. That’s because Beck has not only failed to show improvement, but he’s also regressed in terms of decision making. In his two biggest games of the season so far — Alabama and Texas — Beck has thrown three interceptions in each, including a game-ender against the Tide.
You can forget the QB1 conversation with Beck. Heck, that’s not going to cut it for a first-round pick. He’s got a ton of work to do to revive his draft stock, but he’ll have numerous difficult tests down the stretch to get back on track.
High-end performance + OK traits
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
Rourke and the Hoosiers have been one of the best storylines of the college football season. The Ohio transfer has Indiana undefeated at 7-0 and averaging the third-most points per game in college football (44.0). Rourke combines quick decision making with an aggressive mentality and pinpoint accuracy to make him a fun watch every Saturday.
While Rourke is balling, it’s worth noting that the Hoosiers haven’t played a single team who’s currently ranked. If he can keep this up against the likes of Ohio State, then we’ll have a more serious conversation. Until then, Rourke is going to be behind the eight ball because of his lack of tools. If he became an NFL starter, he’d likely have the weakest arm in the league. And unlike some other weak-armed starters like, say, Jalen Hurts, Rourke doesn’t have mobility to threaten as a Plan B.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Nussmeier already looks like an NFL starter in a number of ways. That shouldn’t be too surprising given his father coaches NFL starting quarterbacks for a living. Doug Nussmeier was a backup quarterback in the league for six years before moving onto coaching the position. He first broke into the league with the Rams as quarterbacks coach in 2006 and currently holds the same position for the Eagles.
Garrett Nussmeier has more at his disposal than coaching points, though. He’s tough as nails from the pocket and fearless delivering strikes under pressure. That’s rare to see for a quarterback in his first year as a starter. On 288 dropbacks this season, Nussmeier has taken one sack. That’s freaky stuff. His ability to work anticipatory windows is about as good as it gets in the draft class.
Even though his numbers aren’t elite, Nussmeier hasn’t been working with near the supporting cast that we saw last year at LSU. Flip on the tape and you’ll see a quarterback playing at a very high level.
That being said, he’s not going to excite from a physical perspective. He has a below-average arm by NFL starter standards and is as pure a pocket passer as you’ll see in this class. On 513 career dropbacks, Nussmeier has scrambled only three times across four seasons. Those aren’t necessities for success at the next level, but it makes life a heck of a lot easier to have it.
A few more big games from Nussmeier could easily get him into the first-round conversation, but he’ll have to play nearly flawless football the rest of the way to realistically end up as QB1.
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Sanders has the unenviable task of knowing that week-in and week-out, Colorado’s success falls squarely on his shoulders as a passer. He’s dropped back to pass 316 times already this season — the most of any Power-4 quarterback. Even still, Sanders is averaging a healthy 8.3 yards per attempt — nearly a yard farther than his 2023 figure — and completing a career-high 71.7% of his passes. His sack rate is down, and Sanders is playing a much more consistent brand of football.
While his arm is below average by NFL standards, it’s more than strong enough to win with in the league. Especially when you combine it with his mobility and fearlessness. On the field, there’s not a ton to dislike about his tape this season.
If only it was all about on the field with quarterbacks, though. Take one look at Sanders’ fundamentals, and there’s little doubt about his dedication to the game of football. That’s not what’s in question. It’s the baggage that comes along with the Sanders brand that may not be for every evaluator. From his checked-out play down the stretch last season to him throwing his offensive linemen under the bus after a loss to Nebraska — Sanders hasn’t been the pinnacle of leadership during his time at Colorado. When looking for a “face of the franchise” that a top-5 pick entails, those things matter a whole lot to NFL general managers.
High-End traits + high-end performance
Cam Ward, Miami (FL)
There’s really only one man in college football right now with high-end NFL tools and the week-in, week-out level of play that could take home a Heisman. Ward has a big-time arm that shows whether it’s driving the ball into tight windows, slinging it on the move or airing it out down the field.
His relative calm in precarious situations has been incredible to watch this season. The moment has never been too big and the deficit never too much to overcome for the fifth-year senior. Those are all things you can’t really teach.
While his loose footwork and gun-slinger play style won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, Ward has genuine reasons for being rough around the edges. He was a zero-star recruit from a tiny high school who started his collegiate career at Incarnate Word. After two seasons there he transferred to Washington State for two years before ending up in Miami this fall. It’s safe to say Ward wasn’t getting the same quarterback coaching early in his career as others in this class. Even with all that, Ward has still put up over 300 yards and thrown for multiple scores in every single game this season. The fact that there’s so much meat on the bone developmentally with Ward and he’s already doing this is why he’s the hands-down favorite to go No. 1 overall in the class.
Conclusion
So is there hope for teams that need a quarterback at the top of the draft? 100%. Cam Ward (QB1) looks primed to be a No.1 pick-worthy option at quarterback. Shedeur Sanders (QB2) shouldn’t be too far off if he continues his level of play. Drew Allar (QB3) could be a QB1 in time, but looks like he’s still a year away. Garrett Nussmeier (QB4) won’t excite anyone physically, but he’s the most polished passer in the class. Carson Beck (QB5) has tumbled mightily in the first half of the season, but he’ll get numerous prime-time games down the stretch to revive his draft stock.
