Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Season 12 of my NFL picks.
Since this is the first week of the 2024 season, we’re going to do my favorite Week 1 exercise, which is me telling you how my offseason went. If you’re new here, this is generally the part of my picks that everyone skips over due to the fact that my life is boring. Well, except this year, and that’s because my wife and I welcomed a new baby.
Does that mean I haven’t slept in three months? Yes.
Does that mean I can now smell colors? I believe that’s also a yes.
Will the baby somehow improve my NFL picks? At this point, that’s still up in the air, but my theory is yes.
I spent a good chunk of the offseason on paternity leave, and 90% of that was spent studying the new NFL kickoff rule. And let me just say, besides changing diapers, there’s nothing I know more about than the new kickoff rule. And now that I know everything there is to know about the new kickoff rule, I have fully uncovered all the secrets of the NFL and I now know who’s going to win the Super Bowl.
So who’s it going to be?
That’s a great question, and you can find the answer by clicking here to see my predictions for the entire 2024 NFL season. If you click over, you’ll see my final record prediction for all 32 teams plus who I’m picking to make the playoffs and who I’m taking to win the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
If you decide to click over to read my predictions, we’ll wait for you to get back before moving on.
All right, let’s get to the Week 1 picks.
NFL Week 1 Picks
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
The last time we saw these two teams on the field together came in January in the AFC Championship game. Yes, the Chiefs ended up winning, but I mostly attribute that to the fact that the Ravens went into the game with possibly the worst offensive game plan in NFL history. I know that sounds like an exaggeration, especially when you consider the NFL has existed since 1920, but I am not going to be convinced otherwise.
The Ravens finished the 2023 season with the top rushing offense in the NFL, so running the ball against the Chiefs would have made some sense, but nope, but they decided to do the opposite. In the 17-10 loss, the Ravens running backs got SIX CARRIES. SIX. Three of those carries came in the first quarter for 16 yards, but apparently, averaging 5.3 yards per rush wasn’t good enough, because the Ravens shut their run game down after that and instead decided to try to win the game by having Lamar Jackson throw the ball 37 times.
Not running the ball made zero sense. This would be like if Steph Curry hit five 3-pointers in the first quarter of a playoff game, but then Steve Kerr asked him not to shoot anymore 3s for the rest of the game. People at home would be scratching their heads, just like I was for the final three quarters of Ravens vs. Chiefs. I was scratching so hard that I’m pretty sure I still have claw marks on my scalp.
The reason I’m mentioning all of this is because Baltimore is not going to make the same mistake again. The Ravens already had the best rushing offense in the NFL last year and they made it better this year by adding DERRICK HENRY. Since he was playing for a bad Titans team last year, you might not have noticed that he still finished with the second-most rushing yards in the NFL even though every team was loading the box to stop him.
Henry has had a dominating NFL career, and there’s no team he’s steamrolled more than the Chiefs. The former Titans star has averaged 112 yards per game against Kansas City, which is the MOST he’s averaged against ANY team in his career.
I hate picking against the Chiefs, because they almost always make me look stupid whenever I do it, but I’m going to do it here. The Ravens are going to be out for revenge, and if there’s one instance where the Chiefs are actually beatable, it’s in this exact situation: The Chiefs are just 5-5 in home prime-time games against non-divisional opponents since Mahomes’ first full-year as a starter in 2018.
The pick: Ravens 23-20 over Chiefs
8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)
For the first time ever, the NFL is playing a game in Brazil. I once played an extra in a movie that took place in Brazil (“Fast Five”), and as the only member of the NFL media who’s done that, I believe that makes me the foremost expert on both the NFL and Brazil. And just in case you’re wondering, I played a train passenger.
I don’t want to say that’s the best that anyone has played a train passenger, but it has to be near the top.
Anyway, the one thing about this game is that it’s being exclusively shown on Peacock. If you don’t have a Peacock subscription, don’t worry, you can just follow along on X, aka the social media site formerly known as Twitter. OK, nope, looks like you can’t do that, because Brazil has banned X.
OK, so it looks like we’re just all going to be listening to this game on the radio together. It will be like old times.
On paper, the biggest mismatch in this game feels like Jordan Love against the Eagles secondary. Love caught fire over the final 10 games of last season, and now, he’ll be facing an Eagles defense that gave up the the second-most passing yards in the NFL last season. The Eagles did draft two rookies this year in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but there’s no way to know how much they’re actually going to help until they get on the field. The one thing I will say is that they can’t be any worse than what Philadelphia had last season, so that seems like a small plus for the Eagles.
For me, the biggest change in this game is at running back. The Packers added Josh Jacobs while the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley this offseason. I think Barkley is going to have the bigger impact in this game and that’s mostly because the Packers defense is going to have to focus on not getting burned by A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert, which should give Barkley some serious room to run. On the other hand, if they focus on stopping the run, the Brown and Smith could have a big night.
Also, the one thing I don’t like about the Packers is that they’ll be going into Friday’s game with a kicker who’s never attempted a field goal in a regular-season game. I don’t trust rookie kickers, but I do trust Jake Elliott, so I’ll take the Eagles by three.
The pick: Eagles 27-24 over Packers
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
I’ve decided that for this game, I’m going to pick the team that has the quarterback who I trust more, and let me just tell you, I’ve spent 51 straight hours trying to decide who that is and I’ve gotten nowhere.
On Atlanta’s side, we have a 36-year-old coming off a torn Achilles and on Pittsburgh’s side, we have a former Super Bowl-winning quarterback who has apparently forgotten how to play football.
Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson? Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins? Both quarterbacks were drafted in 2012 and this will actually mark the first time in NFL history that two quarterbacks with at least 12 years of experience are playing each other in a debut game for a new team.
If you’re wondering why I just gave you that fun fact, it was my way of stalling until I could decide which quarterback I liked better in this game, and I’m starting to think the answer is Cousins.
Cousins doesn’t seem like a guy who normally holds grudges or plays with a chip on his shoulder, but I feel like he’ll be playing with one this year after watching the Falcons draft Michael Penix Jr. If Cousins doesn’t want Falcons fans calling for him to be benched by the time Week 2 rolls around, then he’s going to have to have a big season, so the pressure’s going to be on right away. If Cousins comes out of the gate and has an ugly game against the Steelers, fans in Atlanta will likely be calling for Penix to start.
If you’re coming off a torn Achilles, your worst nightmare is being forced to face T.J. Watt in your first game back, and that’s exactly what’s happening in this game. I would not want to be Cousins this week. That being said, the Falcons have the weapons for Cousins to succeed and although he might not have a huge game on Sunday, I do think he does just enough to pull Atlanta to a win.
The pick: Falcons 20-17 over Steelers
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
When the first overall pick is starting a game in Week 1, the smart strategy is to pick against him. Since the 2003 season, there have been 15 quarterbacks taken with the top pick and they’ve gone 0-14-1 in their debut game. If you think about it, the stat shouldn’t be that surprising. The top pick usually goes to the worst team in the league and that team is almost always an underdog in Week 1. However, that’s not the situation this year. The top pick DIDN’T go to the worst team in the league because the worst team (Carolina) traded the pick away to the Bears, who are actually a decent team.
For one, Williams is about to become the first QB ever drafted in the top five to inherit TWO receivers who are both coming off a 1,200-yard receiving season (Keenan Allen and DJ Moore). Not to mention, the Bears also have Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. No Bears QB has EVER thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, but it feels like Williams might actually be able to hit that number this year.
Defensively, don’t sleep on the Bears (or is it hibernate?)
Starting in Week 10 last season, the Bears went 5-3 down the stretch, and a big reason for that is because they only surrendered 17.1 point per game, which was the fewest points by any defense in the NFL from Week 10 thru Week 18.
Look, I actually think the Titans are going to be better than most people expect this year, but per tradition, I have to take the Bears, because they were on “Hard Knocks” team this year and HBO always somehow brainwashes me into thinking that the “Hard Knocks” team is going to be good.
The pick: Bears 19-16 over Titans
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This game is being played in Miami, which I’m only mentioning, because no one has embraced the South Beach lifestyle more than Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
The guy on the left can’t beat good teams and can’t win big playoff games, but the guy on the right is going to lead the Dolphins straight to the Super Bowl. You can’t pick against the guy on the right, which is good news for me, because I don’t plan on picking against Mike McDaniel anytime soon, because he is essentially unbeatable during the first few weeks of the season.
Since McDaniel took over as Miami’s coach in 2022, the Dolphins have gone 6-0 during the first three weeks of the season and they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 13 points per game in those wins.
The Dolphins have a speedy offense that’s tough to prepare for if you don’t see it often, and the Jaguars definitely don’t see it often.
So we have a speedy Dolphins offense that will be going up against a Jaguars offense that might get called for 57 delay-of-game penalties because no one seems to know who will be calling the offensive plays yet.
The game is just days away, Doug! You need to decide.
Both quarterbacks in this game (Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence) got big contract extensions this offseason, which means the loser of this game is going to instantly be getting ripped for not living up to his contract.
I already said I won’t be picking against McDaniel, which means I’m taking the Dolphins. And look, I don’t want to pour it on here, but Kevin Harlan, Trent Green and Melanie Collins will be calling this game for CBS and McDaniel has never lost with that trio working the game. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Dolphins are 7-0 and have averaged 38.0 points per game with Kevin, Trent and Melanie around.
Stephen Ross might want to think about hiring those three as Miami’s permanent announcing team.
The pick: Dolphins 34-24 over Jaguars
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)
This game feels like it could be an NFC Championship preview, and I’m not just saying that because that’s exactly what I predicted in my 2024 season preview, which you can read here. OK, to be honest, I did just say that because it was in my preview. I needed to plug it again.
Anyway, if you read that preview, you’ll notice that I’m very high on both of these teams:
- I have the Rams finishing with the best record in the NFC
- I have Jared Goff as my dark-horse MVP candidate
- I have one of these teams in the Super Bowl
I love both of these teams this year and I do not want to pick this game because I don’t want to be forced to pick one over the other. It’s like picking one child over the other, which is a cliche that actually makes sense to me now that I have two kids.
Matthew Stafford is returning to Detroit for the second time in eight months to play a game, and this time, I actually think he’s going to win. The biggest thing working in the Rams’ favor is that everyone seems to be healthy, which wasn’t always the case last season. There were only eight games last year where the Rams had Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams on the field at the same time. In those games, the Rams went 6-2 and Stafford threw 18 touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions.
After losing to the Lions during last year’s playoffs, I have to think Stafford would love to finally get a win IN Detroit, which he still hasn’t done since being traded from the Motor City to Los Angeles back in 2021.
The pick: Rams 30-27 over Lions
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC)
The NFL scheduling department is clearly trying to make sure that Aaron Rodgers experiences some PTSD in Week 1, because that’s they only reason they would schedule this game.
- Last year, the Jets opened the season on Monday night and Rodgers lasted only five snaps before he tore his Achilles after taking a hit from Buffalo’s Leonard Floyd.
- This year, the Jets will once again open the season on Monday night and Rodgers will once again be facing Floyd, who left the Bills to sign with the 49ers in March.
Rodgers has to face the SAME GUY, in the SAME WEEK, on the SAME DAY, at the SAME TIME. Now I know why he does all of that Ayahuasca.
After Rodgers got injured, most people stopped paying attention to the Jets, so you may not know that they actually ended up having one of the best defenses in the NFL last year. The Jets gave up the second-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest total yards in the league in 2023.
Not to mention, if anyone knows how to slow down Kyle Shanahan’s offense, it’s Jets coach Robert Saleh, who served as the 49ers defensive coordinator for four seasons under Shanahan (2017-20).
Not only will the Jets defense likely have some confidence, but it’s going up against a 49ers offense that has been going through a lot of drama this offseason: Ricky Pearsall won’t be playing, Brandon Aiyuk missed all of training camp before finally signing his extension last week and let’s not forget about Trent Williams, who missed ALL OF TRAINING CAMP, before FINALLY ending his holdout on Tuesday. Sure, the All-Pro tackle might suit up for the opener, but even if he plays, he likely won’t be in great football shape just yet.
Also, let’s not forget that Rodgers is the most vindictive person on the planet, and there’s a 100% chance he still holds a grudge against the 49ers for not drafting him in 2005.
If the game was on a Sunday, I might take the 49ers, but it’s on a Monday and Aaron Rodgers somehow doesn’t lose on “Monday Night Football.” He’s won 10 straight Monday starts and he could tie the NFL record of 11 if the Jets beat the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
The pick: Jets 23-20 over 49ers
NFL Week 1 picks: All the rest
Bills 24-16 over Cardinals
Bengals 23-13 over Patriots
Texans 24-17 over Colts
Saints 16-13 over Panthers
Giants 17-13 over Vikings
Chargers 20-16 over Raiders
Seahawks 27-20 over Broncos
Cowboys -27-24 over Browns
Buccaneers 20-13 over Commanders
Last Week
Best pick: If you just read through these picks while thinking, “Wow, I wish I could read this guy every day,” you’re in luck, because you can! I also write the daily NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and you can subscribe by clicking here and entering your email address. And don’t be selfish, feel free to sign up everyone you know. You can also follow me on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter here. By the way, this is usually the part where I brag to you about my best pick from the preceding week, but since there weren’t any regular-season games last week, that means there’s no best pick for this section.
Worst pick: Although I’ll have plenty of “worst picks” for this section starting next week, I have nothing for you this week. Actually, wait, yes I do. Since this is the worst pick section, this is the perfect time to tell you about my worst decision from the offseason: I was assigned to put the baby’s pajamas on one night and I put the pajamas on, but forgot the diaper. The baby must have known, because less than five minutes later, he went to the bathroom in his diaperless state. I’ve now been banned from putting on the baby’s pajamas.
Final 2023 picks record (including playoffs)
Straight-up: 170-115
Against the spread: 146-129-10
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably watching his epic performance from “Fast Five” on his self-autographed DVD copy of the movie that he’s had since 2013.
