Trainer Brad Cox has two horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field as he attempts to claim his first Kentucky Derby victory outside of a post-match disqualification. Cox trained Mandaloun, who won the 2021 Kentucky Derby after Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit was disqualified following a post-race drug test. Cox, with more than $8 million in earnings already this year, has the second-best earnings this year with the best win percentage (27%) of any trainer with more than 170 starts this year entering the Kentucky Derby 2024. Cox trains Catching Freedom (8-1) and Just a Touch (10-1) among the 2024 Kentucky Derby horses.
Catching Freedom and Just a Touch are two of just five horses in the 20-horse 2024 Kentucky Derby field lower than 10-1 in the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds for Saturday’s race. Fierceness is the 5-2 favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Post time for the first leg of the Triple Crown is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby offering arguably the best betting opportunity of any single sporting event of the year, you’ll want to see what Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks.
A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014 and an $18,000 Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs in early April.
In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023.
For Saturday, he has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Weir is fading Fierceness, even though he is the top favorite. The favorite in the final Kentucky Derby odds has come up short in each of the last five years, and the favorite’s lack of success extends well beyond that time span. Since 1980, the favored horse has won just 10 times across the 44 Kentucky Derbies, or just 22.7%.
Additionally, Fierceness has won just two of his four Graded Stakes races, finishing in third place and seventh place in the others. He also doesn’t have the top lineage since sire, City of Lights, was never even considered for a Triple Crown race as a 3-year-old in 2017 and never won a race longer than 1 1/8 miles. Finally, his ownership group of Repole Stable is 0-for-8 at the Derby, never finishing better than fifth place with any previous starter.
Another curveball: Weir is high on the chances of Japanese invader Forever Young, even though he’s a 10-1 longshot. Forever Young is a perfect 5-for-5 with victories over his career, including winning the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby over the last two months to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Although no Japanese-bred horse has won the Kentucky Derby, few Kentucky Derby horses have entered with an international resume quite like Forever Young.
By running and winning the UAE Derby, Forever Young has shown the ability to be stretched out in a longer race than the American horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. The UAE Derby is 1 3/16 miles, which is 1/16-of-a-mile shorter than the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby. For example, the Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, two high-profile races on the American Road to the Kentucky Derby, are 1 1/8 miles long. You can see all of Weir’s 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Weir is high on a big double-digit longshot who “could be ready for his best.” Weir is including this surprising horse in his 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the horse racing insider who has had multiple five-figure days at the track and just hit an $18,000 payday, and find out.
